Market analysis of the CBO & CBOT

December 03rd, 2020

Demand drop due to the lockdowns and the heavy premiums of biodiesel over crude oil have put the veg oil prices under pressure during the first half of the year 2020. Demand revival as the lockdowns eased and the unexpected production drop of palm during the second half of the year, especially during October, have given wings to the soybean oil and palm oil complexes. A significant factor that affected the palm oil production in Malaysia was the workers shortage in the plantations during the implementation of strict lockdowns. Concerning the soybean complex, Brazil had secured very good export sales which caused incredible tightness domestically during the second half of the year and the basis points spiked above +800 points at Brazilian ports making the soybean oil out of the US to be more competitive. The premium of soybean oil over palm vanished and went into the negative territory as the supply threats loomed over palm oil more creating a demand shift towards soybean oil. The biodiesel industry performance in Indonesia needs to be watched quite closely. Latest news is that India has cut the import duty on CPO by 10% and the demand from the World's biggest palm oil importer is expected to remain healthy. Overall, the supply tightness in palm oil and competitiveness of soybean oil prices against palm oil prices are expected to give support to both soybean oil and palm oil prices.